Preliminary Estimate Places Hurricane Melissa Damage at Up to US$7 Billion Says Holness

The Government of Jamaica has placed the preliminary estimate of damage from Hurricane Melissa between US$6 billion and US$7 billion, equivalent to roughly 28 to 32 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the 2024/2025 fiscal year.

Prime Minister Andrew Holness provided the update in Parliament on Tuesday, noting that the impact of the Category 5 system would likely slow economic activity in the short term, particularly in the worst-affected parishes.

“We anticipate a temporary slowdown in economic activity, particularly in the most affected parishes. Agricultural output will decline in the short term as farmers replant and livestock operations recover. The tourism sector, while resilient and working swiftly to reopen, will require targeted support to restore capacity and confidence,” Holness stated.

Last week, Disaster modeller Chuck Watson of Enki Research described Hurricane Melissa as a “worst-case scenario” for Jamaica, suggesting that its overall cost could surpass that of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which caused losses of approximately US$7 billion.

The town of Black River in St Elizabeth suffered some of the most severe damage, with widespread flooding and significant infrastructure loss.

According to Artemis, an international catastrophe bond analysis platform, Jamaica’s disaster risk insurance framework is expected to play a key role in stabilising the economy and assisting recovery efforts in the coming months.